Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
May 7, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 07/2000Z from Region 2339 (N13E47). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 06/2228Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 06/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 07/1831Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

 

III.  Event probabilities 08 May-10 May

Class M    55/55/55

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 May 147

Predicted   08 May-10 May 145/145/145

90 Day Mean        07 May 126

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  021/021

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    10/10/10

 

SpaceRef staff editor.