Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 07/2000Z from Region 2339 (N13E47). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 06/2228Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 06/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 07/1831Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 147
Predicted 08 May-10 May 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 07 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 021/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
