Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
07/1629Z from Region 2051 (S09, L=060). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May,
10 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
07/0043Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1958Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1958Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 May, 09 May)
and quiet to active levels on day three (10 May).

III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 146
Predicted 08 May-10 May 145/145/150
90 Day Mean 07 May 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/008-008/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/45