Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1504Z from Region 2961 (S13W55). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 06/2322Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10194 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Mar), quiet levels on day two (09 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 118
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 118/118/116
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 011/010-005/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/30
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 25/15/40