Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 07/0358Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1556Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1419 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Mar, 09 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 Mar 078

Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 076/072/070

90 Day Mean        07 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  011/014

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  009/013

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  007/005-007/005-007/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/20

Minor Storm           10/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/25

Major-severe storm    40/40/30