Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 07/1236Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 06/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 06/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 354 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Mar, 09 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 094
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 019/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 015/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 008/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20