Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 March 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
March 7, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 March 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 06/2111Z from Region 2297 (S17E81). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 585 km/s at 07/1034Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/2237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 107 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (08 Mar, 10 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day two (09 Mar).

 

III.  Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar

Class M    40/40/40

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 Mar 138

Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 140/140/140

90 Day Mean        07 Mar 142

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  009/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  016/020

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  009/012-012/015-008/010

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/35/30

Minor Storm           10/15/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    40/45/40

 

SpaceRef staff editor.