Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 06/2111Z from Region 2297 (S17E81). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 585 km/s at 07/1034Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/2237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (08 Mar, 10 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day two (09 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 138
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 009/012-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar