Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/1644Z from Region 1686 (S12W84). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (08 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at
07/1415Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/2357Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4400 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Mar, 10
Mar) and quiet levels on day two (09 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 10/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 114
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 112/118/120
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 006/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/10/25