Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 342 km/s at 07/0801Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/0045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/0312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 266 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 101
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10