Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Jun) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 07/1719Z, though all RTSW from DSCOVR data after 07/1600 was largely flagged as being suspect. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 07/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 07/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 223 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (08 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 081
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 080/080/078
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 011/015-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/25