Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/0333Z from Region 2661 (N07W11). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 07/0044Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 07/1631Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 356 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jun 076
Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        07 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10