Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 06/2135Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/0506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/0317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1495 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Jun, 10
Jun) and quiet levels on day two (09 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 079
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 021/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 005/006-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/10/20