Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/2225Z from Region 2080 (S12E04). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
462 km/s at 07/1851Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 07/1902Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 07/1849Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 137
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 140/145/155
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 010/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/05/05