Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/1151Z from Region 1762 (S28W87). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (08 Jun) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (09
Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 482 km/s at 06/2155Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/2335Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 07/0024Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4095
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (08 Jun, 10 Jun)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (09 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 15/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 110
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 016/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 025/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 011/015-014/018-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/20
Minor Storm 15/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 45/60/30