Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/2150Z from Region 2835 (S18W82). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 07/0347Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0702Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 076
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 076/074/074
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 005/005-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/30