Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1349Z from Region 2665 (S06E52). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 07/0213Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2258Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/2106Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jul), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (09 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 080
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  007/008-019/025-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           05/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/60/55