Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07/0409Z from Region 2381 (N14E17). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 601 km/s at 07/0238Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2310Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/2318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 576 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Jul, 09 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

Class M    45/45/45

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 Jul 133

Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 140/140/140

90 Day Mean        07 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  009/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  005/005-006/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/30

Minor Storm           05/05/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/20/30

Major-severe storm    20/20/40