Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
07/0058Z from Region 1785 (S10W02). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to low to
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and
three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
352 km/s at 07/0521Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/0217Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/2111Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Jul, 09 Jul)
and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 126
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 125/130/135
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 020/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 008/009-007/010-012/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/30/20