Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 January 2020

By SpaceRef Editor
January 7, 2020
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 06/2155Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 07/2037Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).


III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 072
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 007/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25


SpaceRef staff editor.