Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 06/2103Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2970 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 072
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10