Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 305 km/s at 07/1627Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1751Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1702Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 070
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  010/012-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/15