Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/0617Z from Region 2480 (N03E58). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 632 km/s at 06/2251Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/2333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5126 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 103
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/20