Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 07/1151Z from Region 2253 (S06W44). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 512 km/s at 07/0616Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 07/0852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 07/0856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 282 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 147
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 155/160/165
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 028/042
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 015/020-013/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
