Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 January 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
07/1832Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09
Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
435 km/s at 07/1429Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/1656Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/1555Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 34 pfu at
06/2200Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 07/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2692 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jan), active to major
storm levels on day two (09 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (10 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one,
two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 50/50/50
Proton 99/99/99
PCAF Red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 237
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 195/195/190
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/15/05
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 60/25/05
