Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 January 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/0852Z from Region 1640 (N28W87). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (08 Jan,
09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 385 km/s at
07/1934Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0126Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.8 nT at 07/0327Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet with a chance of unsettled levels for the next three days
(08 Jan, 09
Jan, 10 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 35/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 150
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 006/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 006/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/05/15