Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 07/1749Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 07/0233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/0250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 301 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 073
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 009/010-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/25/25