Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 07/0212Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/0109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 829 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Feb) and quiet levelson days two and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 071
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10