Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 07/1347Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (08 Feb, 09 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (10 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 06/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 07/0942Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    15/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 077
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 078/077/077
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  008/008-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/15
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/20