- Status Report
- Feb 3, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 February 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 07/0858Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/0722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14194 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (10 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 072
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 072/073/072
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 011/012-009/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/05