Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 07/0858Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/0722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14194 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (10 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 072
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 072/073/072
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  011/012-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/05