Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07/1202Z from Region 2496 (N08E34). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at 07/0121Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/2302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 185 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 117
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 115/115/118
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 015/018-013/018-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/20