Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07/1754Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 469 km/s at 07/0049Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/0632Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 585 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 153
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 155/155/150
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
