Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 430 km/s at 07/1023Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 07/0942Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 664 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Dec, 09 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 090
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 090/088/088
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 006/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25