Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 06/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 104 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Dec, 09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 070
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 007/008-006/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/10