Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 07/2100Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 07/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 07/2026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1250 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (08 Dec, 09 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (10 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 077
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 016/020-016/020-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/20