Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/0419Z from Region 2465 (S05E58). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Dec) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 711 km/s at 07/1700Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/1047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/0649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3587 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (08 Dec, 10 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 101
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 026/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 016/020-014/014-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/35
Minor Storm 15/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/40/50