Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07/0138Z from Region 2222 (S19W80). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 815 km/s at 07/1900Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 06/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2029 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 132
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 135/140/145
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 017/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 012/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
