Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 07/1607Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 07/0622Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 074
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 009/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/25