Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 07/0042Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 07/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26137 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 068
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 005/005-006/005-005/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15