Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 07/2032Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/1228Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Aug, 10 Aug) and quiet levels on day two (09 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 070
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 070/070/069
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/25