Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug) and expected to be very low on day three (10 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 06/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11301 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 073
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  007/008-007/006-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/15