Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/1444Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Aug,
09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 07/0540Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/0144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (10 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 093
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 100/105/100
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 015/020-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/30
Minor Storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/35
Major-severe storm 55/25/30