Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/0552Z from Region 2130 (S08W54). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 456 km/s at
06/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/2007Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 907 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Aug, 10
Aug) and quiet levels on day two (09 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 20/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 136
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 130/125/125
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 007/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/25