Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Aug,
09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 526 km/s at
06/2238Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0105Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7173 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to active
levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(10 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 106
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 007/008-009/012-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/40
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/55