Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 07/1759Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 07/1142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 07/1347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (08 Apr, 10 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 076
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 074/072/072
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 010/010-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/30
Minor Storm 15/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/30