Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 07/0355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21832 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 077
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 077/077/074
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/15