Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 07/1948Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1809Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 07/2029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 314 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Apr, 09 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (10 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 067
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  006/005-006/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor Storm           01/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/55