Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1113Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 07/0909Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 07/1800Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 07/1800Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1937 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (10 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 092
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 092/090/095
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 013/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 55/25/10