Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
April 7, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 543 km/s at 07/0318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 496 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Apr), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (09 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Apr).

 

III.  Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 Apr 111

Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 115/120/125

90 Day Mean        07 Apr 130

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  008/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  007/008-014/020-011/015

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/45/35

Minor Storm           05/20/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/10/15

Minor Storm           25/25/30

Major-severe storm    20/60/45

 

SpaceRef staff editor.