Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/0631Z from Region 2026 (S12W31). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr,
10 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
433 km/s at 07/1850Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1215Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/1422Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10
Apr).

III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 140
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05