Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/1600Z from Region 1718 (N20E20). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr,
10 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 417 km/s at
07/0829Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/0734Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1006 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Apr, 09 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (10 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 138
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 138/135/130
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 006/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/20