- Press Release
- September 24, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 September 2021
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 331 km/s at 06/0431Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1247Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3283 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 100
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20